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Planning for post COVID-19

  • 1.  Planning for post COVID-19

    Registered Piano Technician
    Posted 03-24-2020 17:46

    There are a growing number of us in lockdown states and cancelling all appointments until things open up again. In spite of the President's fantasy that this will happen by Easter I think that is unlikely but that's still several weeks away and I'm not interested in a debate on policy right now. I happen to think lockdown is necessary to insure that our health care system is not overwhelmed and people don't lose their lives unnecessarily.

    One question for us is how do we best prepare for the time when the country does open again. At present it's hard to schedule appointments as we don't know if we will be able to keep them and going back and forth rescheduling is difficult not to mention we don't know what the status of those customers will be.

    What I am doing is continuing to use my email reminder system to alert folks that their pianos are due for service. In my reminder email text I have written that at this time I am not booking any appointments but I am creating a list for those who want me to contact them as soon as we get word that things are opening up again. 

    Since I use an email system for reminders (which I recommend as it allows you to send global updates and announcements not to mention saves in time and postage), I have simply created a subfolder in my outlook inbox called "post-covid" and the responses I get from those who want me to contact them can be kept in chronological order so I can respond first come first serve. I expect this folder to have quite a few responses by the time this is done and this is an easy way to keep track. I can then go to these emails and simply respond to each one.  

    'My database system uses a simple excel spreadsheet with a column, among others, for contact date (when they are due for a reminder), and a column for their email address so that I can just copy and paste those email addresses into the Bcc area of the email. Excel allows you to custom sort by any column so you can easily sort by the contact date and see all those who are due in a given month. 

    I would add to Hannah's very good list of things to do while we are locked down to learn to use excel. It is a very useful program for database use, accounting, and a host of piano applications including calculations for touchweight specs and  soundboard design calculations.  It's not difficult to learn. 

    For those who are desperate for work there are a number of industries that are hiring including grocery store chains for restocking, big box stores like Walmart and Costco, CVS pharmacies, delivery companies, Amazon, etc.  I'll add a link to an article outlining those companies that I saw earlier today. 

    Here are 700,000 open jobs that need to be filled immediately

    Cbsnews remove preview
    Here are 700,000 open jobs that need to be filled immediately
    Millions of Americans are already losing their jobs as the coronavirus spreads across the U.S. and wreaks havoc on the economy. But the pandemic is also driving a surge in hiring at businesses seeing an upsurge in demand for their products and services because of the outbreak.
    View this on Cbsnews >


    These are difficult times for everyone but I'm confident we will come out of this if we remain vigilant and responsible in our actions. Take care of your families and neighbors and let's let this bring out the better angels of our nature.

    Take care and be well.



    ------------------------------
    David Love RPT
    www.davidlovepianos.com
    davidlovepianos@comcast.net
    415 407 8320
    ------------------------------


  • 2.  RE: Planning for post COVID-19

    Posted 03-24-2020 17:52
    I hear ya. I use Gazelle and am keeping the default reminders going. I also think it'll take "a while" after things resume for people to start actually requesting piano service. So...I had planned to have a shoulder surgery this summer when it's always super slow. But now I've moved it up to April 9, with the hopes that I'll be recovered enough to resume work once work picks up (if it does). And also assuming they can actually do the surgery with all that's going on. I kinda doubt it will happen that way, but that's what I'm planning.

    I have started something else from home. We shall see how it works out. For now, using the emergency fund. If it runs out, I'll do whatever I need to.

    ------------------------------
    John Formsma, RPT
    New Albany MS
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  • 3.  RE: Planning for post COVID-19

    Posted 03-24-2020 18:17
    Here in the UK we'll be surprised if we're through in two or even three months. 

    People are planting up window boxes for vegetables, tomatoes and the like. And demand for chickens has soared. 

    With the delay in taking it seriously it will have spread very much more and it was a case of a stitch in time saves nine. Some countries such as Taiwan have coped very well although some would say otherwise but I believe South Korea is another example, by testing and quarantining people infected, early on, it's been possible to snuff out exponential growth. Now that exponential growth is inevitable in so many places, just don't think that any sort of normality will be reached any time soon.

    We're coming into the growing season. If you've got a garden or some land, plant it whilst you can and crops will grow. 

    Success really depends on as few people going out for any reason and as rarely as possible. So best not to worry about piano tuning work and focus on what will give you food. For those who are younger, don't have health conditions, and don't smoke, you'll be in demand in logistics and deliveries.

    This might seem negative but it's a realism but the efforts to cope with the virus will require major lifeshifts. https://www.itv.com/news/2020-03-24/government-launches-campaign-recruit-250000-nhs-volunteers-matt-hancock/

    In the emergency in which we find ourselves piano tuning is a luxury and a dead horse. The dead horse won't be revived by flogging it. I read this evening that the virus is coming to NY not as the juggernaut of a goods train but with the speed of a bullet train. It's time to buckle down to a new life whilst you're still able to prepare in any way. Provision. Be ready to provide. Success will not depend on any greed of the individual looking after himself but the ability of individuals to provide for others and others to provide for them. 

    Best wishes

    David P

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    David Pinnegar, B.Sc., A.R.C.S.
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    +44 1342 850594





  • 4.  RE: Planning for post COVID-19

    Registered Piano Technician
    Posted 03-24-2020 19:47
    I agree it will likely be months and the best thing people can do is stay healthy and be vigilant about distancing and safe practices. The more seriously we take the sooner we'll get past it.

    ------------------------------
    David Love RPT
    www.davidlovepianos.com
    davidlovepianos@comcast.net
    415 407 8320
    ------------------------------



  • 5.  RE: Planning for post COVID-19

    Member
    Posted 03-25-2020 05:41
    Article by Friedman published in the NY Times is informative and makes sense. No one under nine years has died from this and healthy individuals under 60 generally are asymptomatic or else have a mild form. Healthy teenagers are largely immune to this or, again, get a mild form. Those are the facts. Overwhelmingly, those who are seriously affected are elderly and/or have underlying conditions. The median age of death from this in Italy, for example, is 79.5 years, and one virologist has speculated that since the disease likely had been widespread in Italy, many of those dying there are dying with the disease, not from it. 

    Months of this? That would be an all-around disaster, and, as Friedman explains, there's another strategy that makes sense. 

    https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/22/opinion/coronavirus-economy.html

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    Don Dalton
    Chester VT
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  • 6.  RE: Planning for post COVID-19

    Registered Piano Technician
    Posted 03-25-2020 08:59
    In reading the comments section:  this is a sound plan IF readily available testing is in play.  Testing is not readily available to reliably enact herd immunity.  Yes, you have to have a NYTimes subscription to read the comments (which I have), but the reporter has welcomed comments.  His intent is to start a conversation and the comments show he is being successful.

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    Tim Coates
    Sioux Falls SD
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  • 7.  RE: Planning for post COVID-19

    Member
    Posted 03-25-2020 09:33
    As I understand, COVID-19 articles are temporarily free at the NY Times. I don't have a subscription.

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    Don Dalton
    Chester VT
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  • 8.  RE: Planning for post COVID-19

    Registered Piano Technician
    Posted 03-25-2020 11:59
    Hi Don,

    The link you provided (at least for me) was not free.  I had to log in to get past part of the first paragraph.

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    Tim Coates
    Sioux Falls SD
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  • 9.  RE: Planning for post COVID-19

    Member
    Posted 03-25-2020 12:28
    Here's another link to the Friedman essay that should work. If not, just search for the title-- "Leadership test during covid: a plan to get America back to work"--  and you're sure to find something,

    https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/international/business/leadership-test-during-covid-a-plan-to-get-america-back-to-work/articleshow/74800405.cms

    ------------------------------
    Don Dalton
    Chester VT
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  • 10.  RE: Planning for post COVID-19

    Posted 03-25-2020 11:48

    Don, 
    There are two strains on the virus and one is significantly worse than the other for everyone who contracts that strain.  Herd immunity is ethically problematic because it suggests (in the 'fine print') that only the healthy deserve to survive this.  There are human beings who, through no fault of their own, would not be able to survive this virus, and saying everyone should just get sick and either get over it or die is just...messed up.  Sorry to disagree.  

    Human lives are more important than the economy.  I say this even as I know I will likely struggle to have a lot of work for the next year as people recover from this financially.  I don't know about you, but I'd rather be ALIVE and BROKE, than dead and the economy is okay. And I think most people feel that way.  

    If we reopen everything by Easter it will be a catastrophe, as our European friends try to warn us, and we may as well have never closed everything.  Unfortunately this will take time.  My guess is 2-3 months.  



    ------------------------------
    Hannah Hall
    Joyful Noise Piano Service
    Liberty NC
    336-609-4029
    joyfulnoisepianoservice@gmail.com
    "Make a joyful noise unto the Lord, all the earth!" - Psalm 100:1
    ------------------------------



  • 11.  RE: Planning for post COVID-19

    Registered Piano Technician
    Posted 03-25-2020 12:10
    Hi Hannah,

    I'm curious if you read the article?  Just a question. 

    I didn't come away from the article feeling the author was taking one stance or the other.  In fact I thought the main thrust was to present a couple of scenarios.  He invited discussion through the comments section and that's where the testing issue is being brought up. 


    ------------------------------
    Tim Coates
    Sioux Falls SD
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  • 12.  RE: Planning for post COVID-19

    Member
    Posted 03-25-2020 12:24
    There's zero evidence that there are two strains of the virus and that one is killing people. Rather, the evidence is plain as day that the virus, whatever mutations it has and whatever strains it has, is overwhelmingly killing older people and not younger people. Young people are not dying from this unless it's the rare case or unless these younger people have underlying conditions. People under 60 are not dying from this in any great numbers. 

    103 people die each day in the US because of car accidents. Are we shutting down the economy for that? After all, better to be alive than drive, right? Are we even slowing down 20 mph? No. 

    "This is not to dismiss the danger of COVID-19 or deny the respect it warrants. But if the reason for that respect is the danger posed to life, limb, and loved ones- we are distorting it with regard to coronavirus, while overlooking many greater threats that hide in plain sight. This is an inevitable consequence of communal fixation at an all but unprecedented scale.

    "There is more. Coronavirus severity and mortality are, again based on the best available data we have thus far, massively concentrated among the already chronically ill, and especially among the elderly, as I've noted before. Where the denominator data are most reliable, roughly 99% of cases are reported as mild, posing no threat to life and not requiring hospitalization. The risk of death is highly concentrated among those over age 70 and especially 80, meaning the likelihood of exposure and recovery in the rest of us is considerably better than 99%, and more like 99.9%. Unlike the flu or measles, this infection has shown no tendency at all to cause death in children."  --David L. Katz, MD, MPH, FACPM, FACP, FACLM
    https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/coronavirus-mortality-reality-check-david/?trk=portfolio_article-card_title

    How many of those who supposedly died from COVID-19 would have been in line anyhow if this had been the flu that hit them? Not trying to be callous but maybe we're losing sight of the forest for the trees. There are some 7.8 billion people on earth, and the 400,000 COVID-19 cases, the vast, vast majority of which are mild, are mostly just noise that we've blown all out of proportion.

    Signed,
    Your Friendly Neighborhood Contrarian





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    Don Dalton
    Chester VT
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  • 13.  RE: Planning for post COVID-19

    Posted 03-25-2020 13:40
    Don - it's simply not true that the virus only attacks the old

    A 21 year old young female has died with no underlying health conditions and a 47 year old British ambassador likewise has died.

    This is not flu.

    It will hit anyone indiscriminately.

    Best wishes

    David P

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    David Pinnegar, B.Sc., A.R.C.S.
    - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
    +44 1342 850594





  • 14.  RE: Planning for post COVID-19

    Member
    Posted 03-25-2020 15:13
    "It will hit anyone indiscriminately." And I agree, but ...

    I didn't say it attacks only the old. I said the fatalities are overwhelmingly elderly, and those who are young and healthy generally have a mild form of the disease or are asymptomatic. This doesn't mean there are no deaths among young, healthy people, but these are not typical. This is what we know. We should act accordingly.

    Breaking news: Nic Lewis has examined the UK estimates for deaths from COVID-19 and finds they are hugely overestimated. I haven't read this yet. https://www.nicholaslewis.org/covid-19-updated-data-implies-that-uk-modelling-hugely-overestimates-the-expected-death-rates-from-infection/



    ------------------------------
    The Contrarian
    Chester VT
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  • 15.  RE: Planning for post COVID-19

    Posted 03-25-2020 15:29
    The experience in France is that 50% of hospitalised cases is under the age of 60.

    It's really important to beware all news sources that discount the dangers. It's also important to be wary of anyone who's banking on some sort of immunisation. 

    Don't just rely on life as normal. 

    It might . . . but we'll experience a lot before we get there, by which time we'll forget what the old normal was.

    Best wishes

    David P


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    David Pinnegar, B.Sc., A.R.C.S.
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    +44 1342 850594





  • 16.  RE: Planning for post COVID-19

    Member
    Posted 03-25-2020 15:54
    50% of those in ICU in France under 60, but we're not told how old they are (59? 58?) or if these are part of the group that has underlying conditions that makes them highly susceptible to the virus. 

    I repeat, the best evidence we have, from South Korea, China, Italy, etc., and probably also from France if we dig into it, is that the vast majority of patients who succumb to this disease are elderly and/or have underlying conditions. We should be acting accordingly. You can find exceptions to the rule but that doesn't negate what we know. 








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    Don Dalton
    Chester VT
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  • 17.  RE: Planning for post COVID-19

    Posted 03-25-2020 15:59
    It probably depends on many things but 

    Use Google translate.

    Please don't be complacent.

    Stay safe.

    Best wishes 

    David P
    --
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    David Pinnegar, B.Sc., A.R.C.S.
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    +44 1342 850594





  • 18.  RE: Planning for post COVID-19

    Posted 03-25-2020 16:11
    Even though I personally agree with what Don Dalton has written, I would like to make a friendly request to keep the politics of this off the list. Not only does this divert from the OP, we might end up up arguing over stuff that is not at all piano related.

    No, I'm going to mark any response as "Inappropriate." We're adults here. :)

    ------------------------------
    John Formsma, RPT
    New Albany MS
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  • 19.  RE: Planning for post COVID-19

    Member
    Posted 03-26-2020 09:39
    Another important point to remember when thinking that covid-19 only threatens the elderly: when the hospital capacity is overwhelmed with covid-19 patients, which it will be, then all health care will be affected. A young person falls from his bicycle and breaks his leg.  Sorry, he will just have to sit there with a broken leg for a few days until something opens up, because all the doctors are busy, or home sick themselves.  There are all sorts of medical emergencies that will just not be treated if we do not flatten the curve.

    ------------------------------
    Robert Scott
    Real-Time Specialties (TuneLab)
    fixthatpiano@yahoo.com
    Hopkins MN
    ------------------------------



  • 20.  RE: Planning for post COVID-19

    Registered Piano Technician
    Posted 03-25-2020 17:26
    I agree with Don. This thing is seriously blown out of proportions. Every day in the USA 2,335 people die of a heart attack according to the CDC. Nearly 10k have a heart attack, but 2,335 people die of one. Every. Single. Day. But do we shut down the economy for that?

    What about the people who die in strokes? Cancer? Other health issues? Smoking? Alcohol? Drug overdoses? Every day tens if not hundreds of thousands of people die. It's part of life. We don't shut down everything for any other reason. What makes COVID-19 different?

    Maybe it's the fact -- fact -- that COVID-19 has the highest survival rate of all of them. 97% survival rate among the worst case scenario, 99.975% or better among the best case scenario. So yeah, let's all freak out and close everything up. We have really good reason to do so.

    ------------------------------
    Benjamin Sanchez, RPT
    Piano Technician / Artisan
    (805) 315-8050
    www.professional-piano-services.com
    ------------------------------



  • 21.  RE: Planning for post COVID-19

    Registered Piano Technician
    Posted 03-26-2020 19:25

    Benjamin – you are looking at broad statistics relating to how many people die from certain ailments and conditions that are ongoing and well-known.   This is appropriate for thinking about what you should worry about in your own life during normal times and how to influence policy makers when it comes to long-term efforts to address things like diabetes, heart disease, seasonal flu and so on. 

     

    Yes it's true that the large majority of us will be fine.  It's likely that fewer than 1 in 10,000 people in the U.S will die from the coronavirus, so the risk to any particular individual is low.  That isn't the biggest issue here, although it's a problem of course.  Tens of thousands of people dying before their time is something to be concerned about.  The biggest problem is that there will be a large and sudden increase in people needing critical care.  This will be a huge strain on hospitals.  It already is overwhelming certain hospitals in NY City, and it will get far worse in the coming weeks in the City and in other parts of that state with large numbers of cases.  Aside from patients dying, medical personnel in Italy and Spain are getting sick and dying at a far higher rate than in normal times.  This is starting to happen in NY too.  Because of the shortage of PPE, their risk will increase even more, or it might lead to doctors and nurses not being able to do their jobs. 

     

    I suggest that you look up reports on what is happening in Spain and Italy, and in hospitals.  The New York Times is doing excellent reporting on this, and their articles on the epidemic are free to click on for non-subscribers.  Better yet, if you happen to know anyone who works in the medical field, ask them what they think is the right thing to do now.  I know an emergency room doctor, and she recently pleaded with people on Facebook to follow our governor's order to minimize social contact as much as possible.  I have to assume she knows what she's talking about and that she's not being unreasonable and alarmist.  I'm in Washington state. 






  • 22.  RE: Planning for post COVID-19

    Posted 03-25-2020 12:24
    Hannah - I'm entirely with you.

    The old saying is that a stitch in time saves nine, and unfortunately the governments are having to run round making nine, and more, having not taken the stitch in time.

    In the UK I'm not entirely sure that the nine applied have been strong enough but we'll see. In Japan there is a strangely relaxed approach as reported in https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/phoney-war-how-japan-is-facing-down-coronavirus-gdsglhhp5 but today there appears to be a realisation that a stricter policy is required. https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/spains-death-toll-overtakes-china-xf9096n8b 
    JAPAN Tokyo, the world's biggest city, will be locked down after a surge in coronavirus infections threatened a new explosion of the epidemic in a country that had seemed ...  

    As soon as facilities are overwhelmed the death rate can exceed 10-14% so in an uncontrolled population remaining uncontrolled the numbers could be very significant. No president and perhaps no economy will survive that. If the US has sense at its helm the realisation of the effects of being open for business by easter will hit and a change of policy will be inevitable.

    Best wishes

    David P
    --
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    David Pinnegar, B.Sc., A.R.C.S.
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    +44 1342 850594





  • 23.  RE: Planning for post COVID-19

    Member
    Posted 03-25-2020 12:54
    "As soon as facilities are overwhelmed the death rate can exceed 10-14% so in an uncontrolled population remaining uncontrolled the numbers could be very significant. "

    That's speculation that assumes that the virus will start killing young, healthy people. We have the evidence in front of us: the elderly are at risk, not the vast majority of the working age population. That is what all the evidence to date says-- loudly, clearly, and unequivocally-- and the evidence also says that no one under nine years old has died from this. 

    Get test kits out for the elderly. Tell healthy younger Americans to stop clogging up the system asking for tests, because they're going to be OK, until we have enough kits for anyone who wants to be tested. Focus attention on the highest-risk group, the elderly, and let the rest of us get back to work before we completely and unnecessarily wreck the economy for years to come. 









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    Don Dalton
    Chester VT
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  • 24.  RE: Planning for post COVID-19

    Posted 03-25-2020 13:23

    So true - and there are rising reports of younger and younger deaths.  I heard about a four month old today who's in isolation with a carer at a hospital, and very sick, and it broke my heart. 💔

    I think people ignoring these things will result in more and more deaths.  It's so heartbreaking.  I have several family members who are high risk, so my perspective is perhaps a bit more...wary, than some.  But I have always been a cautious person, and people at the end of the day will always matter most to me.  

    Agree with you David - I hope the governments and majority will continue to take this seriously.  I think, if they do, in the long run it will shorten the duration of all of this.  



    ------------------------------
    Hannah Hall
    Joyful Noise Piano Service
    Liberty NC
    336-609-4029
    joyfulnoisepianoservice@gmail.com
    "Make a joyful noise unto the Lord, all the earth!" - Psalm 100:1
    ------------------------------



  • 25.  RE: Planning for post COVID-19

    Registered Piano Technician
    Posted 03-26-2020 08:17
    Months of isolated living and no income are only a disaster in an economy where people have no foresight and lack true grit. My hope is this is a wake up call to an irresponsible culture. It's a harsh one though, and people of all age ranges are dying. 

    I am staying at home building stone walls, replacing my deck and doing woodworking. My neighbors watch from their decks and it gives them hope. 

    Perhaps it's time to meditate on the fact that a few weeks of missed work is leading to the collapse of a national economy - whereas in places like Germany  the entire country goes on holiday for weeks at a time. 

    What are we we doing wrong? 

    A rush back to work is pure foolishness in my opinion. What is the point? 
    We can say that "well only the older people are really succumbing to this." In Italy it came to the point where people over 60 were being denied care. We're going to sit around and watch our parents be left to die because everyone wants to go back to work? 

    No thanks. 

    David Love hits the nail on the head. We can either hold tight for a little bit longer, or drag this out because we have misplaced priorities. 

    Whether it's little Suzy Jones or the Commandant of the Marine Corps, my clients are far too important to me to risk their health over a piano. 



    ------------------------------
    Elizabeth Pearson
    Gaithersburg MD
    240-751-5900
    ------------------------------



  • 26.  RE: Planning for post COVID-19

    Posted 03-26-2020 08:42
    Wow, a cordless chop saw!   How long does the battery last?

    Here's one of my projects, I've been waiting to get to...this pic taken on Bainbridge Island in Washington...gonna make one a these or a version of it...also getting an early start on infrastructure in my garden, using found materials, of coarse.



    ------------------------------
    Jim Ialeggio
    grandpianosolutions.com
    Shirley, MA
    978 425-9026
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  • 27.  RE: Planning for post COVID-19

    Registered Piano Technician
    Posted 03-26-2020 08:56
    That's just beautiful Jim. 

    I am finding all of the Milwaukee cordless tools absolutely wonderful. Everything from the cordless mitre saw to the chainsaw (you read that right). I got the table saw but haven't tried it yet. The hand tools (circ saw, impact & screw drivers, palm sanders, *cordless router*, sawzall, oscillating tool) are all excellent. And the batteries at the end of the day for me are typically only down one bar (25%). 

    Highly recommended, and I bought most everything on sale about 6 months ago and have been adding as needed. They do happen, I see some of the stuff marked way down on the Home Depot website. 

    Stay healthy my friend

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    Elizabeth Pearson
    Gaithersburg MD
    240-751-5900
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  • 28.  RE: Planning for post COVID-19

    Registered Piano Technician
    Posted 03-26-2020 09:08
    Ms, Pearson,
    You are a genuinely impressive person. Is the sewing machine cordless as well?  I will not be terribly surprised if you soon post that you used it to make an awning for the new deck out of old shop towels you've repurposed. Keep inspiring us.

    Mr. Ialeggio
    "using found materials of coarse"
    Come now, surely a man of your woodworking experience will have some sandpaper lying around :-)

    ------------------------------
    Karl Roeder
    Pompano Beach FL
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  • 29.  RE: Planning for post COVID-19

    Posted 03-26-2020 09:23
    no,no,no...for my perennial garden, I've been edging it with 3"-4" sapling cutoffs from the woods...but I just found a previously mowed, weed ash that sent up 7 or eight perfect sprouts. I get the 3-4 diameter lengths, my wife gets the top portions for bean poles...no sandpaper needed <G>.  In the cordless department, I snarfed my son's cordless sawzall, for my collecting forays...a fine tool, but quite the battery hog...that's why I wanted to know how long Elizabeth's battery on her chop saw lasted.

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    Jim Ialeggio
    grandpianosolutions.com
    Shirley, MA
    978 425-9026
    ------------------------------



  • 30.  RE: Planning for post COVID-19

    Posted 03-26-2020 12:26
    Own lumber with Alaskan mill

    Alexander Brusilovsky




  • 31.  RE: Planning for post COVID-19

    Registered Piano Technician
    Posted 03-29-2020 15:18
    Thank you so much Karl. That's certainly humbling to hear. 
    :)

    Please take care and I'll try to remember to share more pictures. The stonework willow be to expand my little garden for some added post covid planning. 


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    Elizabeth Pearson
    Gaithersburg MD
    240-751-5900
    ------------------------------



  • 32.  RE: Planning for post COVID-19

    Registered Piano Technician
    Posted 03-26-2020 17:57

     

    Gorgeous!

     

    Ruth Zeiner

    215-534-3834 cell

    ruth@alliedpiano.com

     






  • 33.  RE: Planning for post COVID-19

    Posted 03-25-2020 13:15
    Excellent post David Love!

    ------------------------------
    Melanie Brooks
    Brooks, Ltd. Piano Products LLC
    Uncasville CT
    860-848-6605
    ------------------------------



  • 34.  RE: Planning for post COVID-19

    Posted 03-25-2020 14:46
    Well, we have been offered a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity to pause and reflect deeply on our meanings and purposes.
    When this pandemic is over it will probably be a new world in many ways, and we will need to be new people, ready to take on our new lives.
    So, let's be grateful for time to stop, look at ourselves in the mirror, and look out of our windows at what life is presenting.
    If things get hard, let's hope our behavior doesn't break our hearts.

    I don't know where I saw this, so forgive me if I'm repeating something that was posted in our conversations here. I believe the thighbone she referenced was a 15,000 year old Neanderthal femur.
    "Years ago, anthropologist Margaret Mead was asked by a student what she considered the first sign of civilization in a culture. The student expected Mead to talk about fish hooks or clay pots or grinding stones. But no, Mead said that the first sign of civilization in an ancient culture was a femur (thighbone) that had been broken then healed. Mead explained, that in the animal kingdom, if you break your leg, you die. You can not run from danger, get to the river for a drink or hunt food. You are meat for prowling beasts. No animal survives a broken leg long enough for the bone to heal. A broken femur that has healed is proof that someone has taken time to stay with the person who has fell, has bound up the wound, has carried the person to safety and has tended the person through recovery. 'Helping someone through difficulty is where civilization starts' said Mead. We are at our best when we serve others. Be civilized." - by Dr. Ira Byock, in his book on palliative medicine The Best Care Possible: A Physician's Quest to Transform Care Through the End of Life (Avery, 2012)."




    ------------------------------
    Ed Sutton
    ed440@me.com
    (980) 254-7413
    ------------------------------



  • 35.  RE: Planning for post COVID-19

    Registered Piano Technician
    Posted 03-25-2020 20:04
    Mr.Sanchez,
    I'm not an epidemiologist and don't even play one on TV.  That said,  I think what makes the Covid 19 situation so dire is the possibility that in a very short time all of our available hospital beds could be taken up with people who will likely recover from Covid 19 but require critical care for some period of time.  If that happens then almost all of those 10 thousand heart attack patients won't have access to proper care.  Ditto the stroke, diabetes,and cancer patients.  Likewise the trauma and accident victims.  The people we are trying to protect aren't just those with Covid 19 but rather everyone else who needs access to a functioning healthcare system.  You can think of it like a Distributed Denial of Service attack against a website.  The individual request aren't exceptional in themselves rather it's the volume of the requests all at once that overwhelms the site.

    ------------------------------
    Karl Roeder
    Pompano Beach FL
    ------------------------------



  • 36.  RE: Planning for post COVID-19

    Registered Piano Technician
    Posted 03-25-2020 20:31
    Thanks Karl. Sad that has to be explained.

    ------------------------------
    David Love RPT
    www.davidlovepianos.com
    davidlovepianos@comcast.net
    415 407 8320
    ------------------------------



  • 37.  RE: Planning for post COVID-19

    Member
    Posted 03-31-2020 12:30
    It's not just about the virus; it's also about a society that needs to milk the cows and hay the fields or else the damage will be even worse. That's all. We have to strike a balance.

    I just came across this: twelve experts questioning the coronavirus panic. We should be questioning it, too. https://tinyurl.com/qwofgpk



    ------------------------------
    Don Dalton
    Chester VT
    ------------------------------



  • 38.  RE: Planning for post COVID-19

    Registered Piano Technician
    Posted 03-25-2020 22:02
    It's funny Don. I seldom hear of doctors, nurses, and other medical professionals dying from the common flu. Why do you think that is?

    ------------------------------
    Larry Messerly, RPT
    Bringing Harmony to Homes
    www.lacrossepianotuning.com
    ljmesserly@gmail.com
    928-899-7292
    ------------------------------



  • 39.  RE: Planning for post COVID-19

    Registered Piano Technician
    Posted 03-25-2020 22:16

    Don (and Ben)

    You do understand exponential growth right?  Never mind, rhetorical question. I think I know the answer. But here's your chance. 



    ------------------------------
    David Love RPT
    www.davidlovepianos.com
    davidlovepianos@comcast.net
    415 407 8320
    ------------------------------



  • 40.  RE: Planning for post COVID-19

    Registered Piano Technician
    Posted 03-25-2020 22:51

    David,

    It's seems you're pretty furious at those of us who don't hold the same view as you do. It appears you think we're a bunch of narrow-minds who are set in one direction and don't take the situation seriously. But how do you expect us to take you seriously when you resort to swearing (in violation of the rules btw), calling us a bunch of hacks, and implying that our mental capabilities are inferior to yours?


    From your posts it seems you are completely unwilling to even consider the opposite side of this debate. That's narrow-mindedness. How are we to be open-minded when you yourself are not willing to extend us the same courtesy?



    ------------------------------
    Benjamin Sanchez, RPT
    Piano Technician / Artisan
    (805) 315-8050
    www.professional-piano-services.com
    ------------------------------



  • 41.  RE: Planning for post COVID-19

    Registered Piano Technician
    Posted 03-26-2020 00:07
    Yes that is exactly what I think. Nailed it.

    ------------------------------
    David Love RPT
    www.davidlovepianos.com
    davidlovepianos@comcast.net
    415 407 8320
    ------------------------------



  • 42.  RE: Planning for post COVID-19

    Registered Piano Technician
    Posted 03-26-2020 00:43

    Sadly, this discussion has devolved into what I hoped it would not become. It was meant for folks to discuss how to best get their businesses back up and running when this shutdown eventually winds down and perhaps how to prepare for what might be another shutdown next winter when it's quite possible we may see this rise again. Instead it has been hijacked by the cult of deniers who in their ignorance are likely to prolong this or raise the death toll or both. Since I started the thread I felt compelled to respond as I feel I would be remiss if I let some of these ignorant comments stand unanswered.

    If this is going to continue along these lines then I request that the thread be deleted in its entirety along with other posts suggesting taking mega doses of vitamin C or shoving ginger up your nose as a legitimate prophylactic measure as misinformation is more dangerous than no information. It's not as if we're talking about how to enhance the color of our auras.  

    However if folks wish to discuss how we can best take care of our businesses as was intended then I'm all in. 



    ------------------------------
    David Love RPT
    www.davidlovepianos.com
    davidlovepianos@comcast.net
    415 407 8320
    ------------------------------



  • 43.  RE: Planning for post COVID-19

    Registered Piano Technician
    Posted 03-26-2020 00:59
    David,

    You say you want to have a productive conversation about helping our businesses recover from this. How are we supposed to have a civil, productive conversation when you're of the mindset that you are far superior to everyone else?

    ------------------------------
    Benjamin Sanchez, RPT
    Piano Technician / Artisan
    (805) 315-8050
    www.professional-piano-services.com
    ------------------------------



  • 44.  RE: Planning for post COVID-19

    Registered Piano Technician
    Posted 03-26-2020 01:27
    Benjamin

    I would prefer you start your own thread where you can discuss whatever political views you want and keep them out of this one, as long as you're asking.  The thread started about strategies for restarting business not whether we should sacrifice some demographic for your benefit or who you and Don believe is vulnerable and who isn't. The scientists don't yet know the answer to that. I am certain that neither of you do. I find your position grossly selfish and lacking any humanity and I wish you would take it elsewhere. That is about as politely as I can express it. If you want to know how I really feel I'd be happy to express it but I've already challenged the boundaries of decorum.

    ------------------------------
    David Love RPT
    www.davidlovepianos.com
    davidlovepianos@comcast.net
    415 407 8320
    ------------------------------



  • 45.  RE: Planning for post COVID-19

    Registered Piano Technician
    Posted 03-26-2020 02:36
    David,

    I know we can go on to have a positive, productive conversation about how to restart our businesses when this thing blows over, but I think you also need to apologize for repeated personal insults to those of the opposite opinion. It's one thing to attack a position; it's another to attack a person.

    ------------------------------
    Benjamin Sanchez, RPT
    Piano Technician / Artisan
    (805) 315-8050
    www.professional-piano-services.com
    ------------------------------



  • 46.  RE: Planning for post COVID-19

    Registered Piano Technician
    Posted 03-26-2020 04:44
    We've attacked your position often enough, and with good reason, since many of us are over 70 and we don't want to die by inches, drowning in our own fluids, waiting for beds and respirators which only become available as people die. Yet you continue to take it personally.

    ------------------------------
    Susan Kline
    Philomath, Oregon
    ------------------------------



  • 47.  RE: Planning for post COVID-19

    Registered Piano Technician
    Posted 03-26-2020 06:14
    Stop!

    This thread is about how Piano Technicians can plan for for a post COVID-19 work environment. 

    Other discussion/arguments tend to devolve into non-productive and emotional exchanges which discourage participation on this forum by others. 

     

    http://bit.ly/Schedule_My_Piano

     

    "Good, better, best; never let it rest, 'til the good is better and better best!"


    "Providing quality service for the world's pianos"

     

    Join us: 63nd ANNUAL PTG CONVENTION & TECHNICAL INSTITUTE
    Doubletree Orlando at Seaworld

    July 29-Aug 1, 2020

     

    George W.R. "Bill" Davis, RPT, SERVP

    The Piano Place GA

    2315 Rocky Mountain Rd NE

    Marietta GA 30066

    www.pianoplace.net

    bill@pianoplace.net


    Sent from my iPhone





  • 48.  RE: Planning for post COVID-19

    Posted 03-26-2020 07:10
    With respect from my observation there are some wise souls around here, one of whom is Ed Sutton. His post on another thread was particularly powerful saying that this is a time, a pause, for everyone to look around and look at the deeper aspects of life and our existence. I'm quoting it below. *

    Ordinary business will resume when it's ready and the machinery of function will slowly rebuild. It won't be kick-started but perhaps one can write to one's clients saying that whilst piano tuning will be least on their list of priorities a Well Tuned instrument can bring harmony and joy and that it's bound to have slipped in the recent hiatus. I'm adding an addendum below ** for an idea with which customers might find new resonance.

    Beyond that, I don't believe that there's much one can do to prepare in the piano world post Covid. But there's a lot one can do in other aspects of our lives and our perspectives.

    People who have faced death and come back from the brink, often as NDEs, come back with a different perspective, one which results from the greater meaning of life. Working together, love, in the widest sense requires the death of the ego. This is difficult to achieve. NDE survivors become reborn as their old life is their old life and their now life, their new life is the bonus. 

    At Hammerwood, built by Benjamin Henry Latrobe, the first professional architect of the USA, there are two temples dedicated to both Apollo and Dionysus or Bacchus. Whilst the tabloid press would have you believe the ancient cult was all about orgies and debauchery, for initiates it was different, and the mysteries are believed to have shared similarities with the Eleusian and other initiate cults. Dionysus was tortured in a mirror, and to which there might be a hint in Corinthians 13 about seeing through a glass darkly. In Lebanon there is one of the only temples to Dionysus, at Balbec. The first Book of Kings details a connexion between Soloman's temple and Tyre, and the 18th century freemasons treasured their heritage from the secrets of the servant of the King of Tyre, Hiram. For those interested search "Dionysian Artificers" or "Dionsyiac Artificers" and you'll find more. Personally I believe that the practices of all these cults originated from initiation in the 2nd pyramid, and echoed both in the Easter story and the raising of Lazarus. It was about the death of the ego.

    There is prejudice about masonic matters in the subsequent centuries but it was on account of 18th century masonry that we have today many benefits of freedoms that we take for granted today. Mozart was a Freemason. Through my research and experiments in tuning it became apparent that Mozart's 2nd piano sonata was about being buried in the grave, and coming to life again.

    Here's my very inadequate rendition of the 2nd movement
    but perhaps you can imagine being buried in the grave for three days and all the gamut of emotion, regret, frustration, anger with oneself, sadness. The 3rd movement is the joy of release and of new life. ***

    In our current confinements we are as if buried in the grave.

    Perhaps for a start we have to focus on being producers rather than consumers. Self sufficient more rather than importers so much. Dealing with our relationship with the earth so that we live in harmony with it rather than merely exporting our pollution elsewhere.  So at Hammerwood our focus is starting to grow more vegetables, potatoes and other things, and regarding local venison not as a nuisance on the roads but to be cherished as a resource.

    Perhaps this is also the turnaround time to ask how our big too big to fail businesses are helping or otherwise us to live in harmony with the earth. Perhaps a pause time for contemplation is just what we need.

    So we're currently looking at a pause, and perhaps a turnaround, and perhaps a new life to come, in this life now. May we appreciate this time to come out of the grave rather than going blindly into the very real one.

    Whilst writing I'd like to thank Susan Kline whose inspiration and research on Zinc and Quercetin might just possibly have helped more of us come out of the grave alive than perhaps the chances we might have faced without.

    Best wishes

    David P

    ** (If anyone would like to take forward my recipe for the Well Tuned instrument, people who are playing instruments I'm maintaining appreciate the vibrations working together, and working also with the music - and for that reason it's worth trying. It has a psychological advantage - it's about getting the vibrations all to work together and with the music too, just as the human race needs to be working together likewise.)

    *** This is documented in Chapter 6 of 
    and the Appendices may be of interest too. Perhaps during this period people might try my tuning regimes at home and see what you get. Perhaps you might like it. The aural presentation of this paper is on https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bt-ttLY5ex8 Apologies for my English accent and greetings to Eben Goresco who's been of such inspiration for many across the pond. 

    * Ed Sutton wrote:
    Well, we have been offered a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity to pause and reflect deeply on our meanings and purposes.
    When this pandemic is over it will probably be a new world in many ways, and we will need to be new people, ready to take on our new lives.
    So, let's be grateful for time to stop, look at ourselves in the mirror, and look out of our windows at what life is presenting.
    If things get hard, let's hope our behavior doesn't break our hearts.

    I don't know where I saw this, so forgive me if I'm repeating something that was posted in our conversations here. I believe the thighbone she referenced was a 15,000 year old Neanderthal femur.

    "Years ago, anthropologist Margaret Mead was asked by a student what she considered the first sign of civilization in a culture. The student expected Mead to talk about fish hooks or clay pots or grinding stones. But no, Mead said that the first sign of civilization in an ancient culture was a femur (thighbone) that had been broken then healed. Mead explained, that in the animal kingdom, if you break your leg, you die. You can not run from danger, get to the river for a drink or hunt food. You are meat for prowling beasts. No animal survives a broken leg long enough for the bone to heal. A broken femur that has healed is proof that someone has taken time to stay with the person who has fell, has bound up the wound, has carried the person to safety and has tended the person through recovery. 'Helping someone through difficulty is where civilization starts' said Mead. We are at our best when we serve others. Be civilized." - by Dr. Ira Byock, in his book on palliative medicine The Best Care Possible: A Physician's Quest to Transform Care Through the End of Life (Avery, 2012)."

    --
    - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
    David Pinnegar, B.Sc., A.R.C.S.
    - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
    +44 1342 850594





  • 49.  RE: Planning for post COVID-19

    Registered Piano Technician
    Posted 03-26-2020 14:43
    Thank you, David. But I do not feel we are buried in a grave. We are blooming where we are planted, so to speak.

    ------------------------------
    Susan Kline
    Philomath, Oregon
    ------------------------------



  • 50.  RE: Planning for post COVID-19

    Posted 03-26-2020 15:10
    Susan - I didn't mean that.

    I meant that we are in a transition and a re-awakening period.

    Just imagine being taken into the chamber of the 2nd Great Pyramid, and being left there in the sarcophagus for three days. You'd be promised that after this initiatory experience you'd be reborn into a second life. And as you lay there, terrified, in the dark, food deprived and suffering bodily functions, you'd go through every aspect of your life and wish that you'd done things better. You'd fear not getting out alive and a whole gamut of emotions not the least of which was regret at being hoodwinked at getting into this, anger, and then as your regrets of not having loved perfectly before sank in, anger with yourself and self torture. 

    Our current confinements are not, yet, as severe or as life threatening, but they are a pause and pause for thought as our insecurities dawn upon us and we have to reflect on how to rearrange things better afterwards.

    I don't think that life after this period will be the same and we shouldn't expect it to. I don't think that quite "back to normal" will be the normal as it was. Add to the virus problem those of for instance central America subject to drought, being a deterrent to washing hands, and other places which will suffer floods, and we're likely to see shifts and chaos to varying degrees. 

    My friend in Italy passing 7 vehicles on a 20 mile trip of which 5 were hearses experienced something. For those in New York where the arrival of the effects of the virus is feared to be approaching with the speed of a bullet train, life after such experience won't be the same again.

    In England enormous preparations have been made for the National Health Service to provide facilities for many thousands. With luck there will be only a shortage of bread on the shelves and not a shortage of hearses. The emotional experience that most probably won't leave many untouched will bring unavoidable change. Not necessarily physical change but a change in perspective. Better to be prepared to embrace it rather than to merely look back, as Lot's wife, with regret and tears at the life that was that was lost, and become a pillar of salt. Pillars of salt get washed away. Being of a mind prepared will be as a rock in the river flooded with change and to which others can cling so to help all not being washed out to sea.

    The past few weeks have been for many as the phoney war of 1940 when so much seemed curiously normal. None then could prepare for what was to be when they emerged in 1946. So now, planning for post Covid-19 is just the same.

    It's rather a wake-up call for humanity, and for humanity to show itself at its best.

    Best wishes

    David P.

    --
    - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
    David Pinnegar, B.Sc., A.R.C.S.
    - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
    +44 1342 850594





  • 51.  RE: Planning for post COVID-19

    Registered Piano Technician
    Posted 03-25-2020 22:59

    Don

    The food supply chains are essential services and therefore are exempt from any lockdowns. However, in order to protect those workers and our food supply, it requires the rest of us who are not essential services to cooperate with social distancing. 

    RE the articles you cite, including the Friedman op ed (which in my view was grossly negligent in terms of its timing), the decision of how and when to start to open up is not a binary one. It's going to be how to phase in the opening in order to maintain infection control to insure the health care system, which the present administration is doing its best to unfund and destroy, is not overwhelmed. 



    ------------------------------
    David Love RPT
    www.davidlovepianos.com
    davidlovepianos@comcast.net
    415 407 8320
    ------------------------------



  • 52.  RE: Planning for post COVID-19

    Member
    Posted 03-26-2020 09:30
    Don, I should point out first that your reference to an off-guardian dot org source is rated "conspiracy-pseudoscience" by mediabiasfactcheck.com. That should make one suspicious. Then the technique of cherry-picking experts is journalistically questionable.  It is possible to find ten nominally qualified experts to support just about any theory one wants.  Let's all be more careful consumers of information.

    ------------------------------
    Robert Scott
    Real-Time Specialties (TuneLab)
    fixthatpiano@yahoo.com
    Hopkins MN
    ------------------------------



  • 53.  RE: Planning for post COVID-19

    Member
    Posted 03-26-2020 11:00
    Robert,

    The off-guardian website was apparently created by people whose comments had been censored by The Guardian. That's all I know about it. I'm quite familiar with the work of Dr Peter Goetzsche, Professor of Clinical Research Design and Analysis at the University of Copenhagen and founder of the Cochrane Medical Collaboration, as I've read many essays by him and have one of his books. I also know of the work of Dr. John Ioannidis, who is famous for pointing out that most scientific studies don't stand up to scrutiny (and who is very widely quoted in mainstream sources; look him up!) and who warns that our handling of COVID-19 is likely to turn into an epidemiological fiasco (because, frankly, the numbers and how these fall don't support the fear.)  I recently came across Dr. Katz's work, who initially suggested the idea of a surgical, vertical approach to COVID-19 rather that a broad horizontal approach; these three are part of the twelve opinions which you imply we should be suspicious of. All of these 12 are indeed experts in their field; for example, Prof. Hendrik Streeck is a German HIV researcher, epidemiologist and clinical trialist. He is professor of virology and the director of the Institute of Virology and HIV Research at Bonn University. He might know something. Dr Joel Kettner is professor of Community Health Sciences and Surgery at Manitoba University, former Chief Public Health Officer for Manitoba province and Medical Director of the International Centre for Infectious Diseases. And so on.

    All of these opinions are counter to the main idea that we should panic and shut everything down, and perhaps that's why they've landed on "off-guardian," most likely as a collection of opinions by that site, rather than as direct contribution by any one of them to that site.

    It's not a matter of promoting any "theory"; I hope I've made that clear. It's a matter of looking at all the evidence and sorting out what's what, and maybe being just a tad skeptical of what we're bombarded with day-in and day-out. So my suggestion is that these alternative views of what's happening may be illuminating and may provide food for thought, regardless of what the gatekeepers of who-we-should-not-listen-to say. 

    I agree 100%: let's all be more careful consumers of information.

    So we can drop this, right? As some have hinted we should. But be forewarned, I will respond to attacks and comments. And, I'm not laying out that we should all sacrifice our elders, as some have implied, but simply pointing out an alternative to handling COVID-19 that seems to make sense to me and to a lot of other people, and is based on facts rather than fear. 

    (BTW, it's helpful to know that Germany shuts down all its restaurant, concerts, cruises, sports events and resorts for several weeks each year. I didn't know that.)

    David, I didn't mean to hijack your thread. That wasn't my intention. My initial comments were quite unobtrusive, as I intended; things escalated from there due to responses. This might have been expected given how serious the situation is, no matter how one looks at it, and how emotions play into it. So my apologies to you and to everyone else who has been offended by this debate.




    ------------------------------
    Don Dalton
    Chester VT
    ------------------------------



  • 54.  RE: Planning for post COVID-19

    Registered Piano Technician
    Posted 03-26-2020 09:04
    This is wonderful Ed.

    ------------------------------
    Elizabeth Pearson
    Gaithersburg MD
    240-751-5900
    ------------------------------



  • 55.  RE: Planning for post COVID-19

    Posted 03-26-2020 02:04

    Great post Dave.  I will definitely spend some of my lockdown time getting more comfortable with Excel.  

    Also looking for good resources for regulation troubleshooting in spinets.  If anyone has any recommendations I'd be very grateful!  

    Which email system do you use for reminders and notifications?  I have considered doing this, but am not the most tech savvy despite being under 30😄  

    Probably will spend a lot of time reading and practicing some regulation on my own piano, as well as taking the time to get more organized with my customer records and notification system.  

    Thanks for the suggestions!  Stay safe out there everybody! 



    ------------------------------
    Hannah Hall
    Joyful Noise Piano Service
    Liberty NC
    336-609-4029
    joyfulnoisepianoservice@gmail.com
    "Make a joyful noise unto the Lord, all the earth!" - Psalm 100:1
    ------------------------------



  • 56.  RE: Planning for post COVID-19

    Registered Piano Technician
    Posted 03-26-2020 11:49

    Hannah 

    I happen to use outlook as it integrates well with other Microsoft products I use and I like its easy ability to create sub folders to store emails in. It is limited to 100 recipients per email and my client base is quite a bit larger than that so global announcements need to be sent in multiples. 


    I'll post an excel "book" later that I use and people are welcome to have it if the want. In it are several sheets for different areas. I would copy it and save the original template and then make another copy to play with in case it gets messed up. In it I have a sheet for income, one for expenses, a summary report sheet that integrates data from the income and expenses that can be used for accounting purposes and a client database sheet. You can look at the cells to get a sense of how it is programmed and the language used. I'll post that on a new thread so we can separate from this messy one in the next day or so and we can gave an ongoing tutorial for those interested. 



    ------------------------------
    David Love RPT
    www.davidlovepianos.com
    davidlovepianos@comcast.net
    415 407 8320
    ------------------------------



  • 57.  RE: Planning for post COVID-19

    Member
    Posted 03-31-2020 12:30

    Look, tempers have flared on this. I'm not in favor of deleting anything: make another posting of the thread but let's not resort to censorship. We're living in unprecedented times and this will affect all our lives. Let's get it out in the open, and we should be adult enough to discuss it civilly. 

    As for vitamin C, it's absolutely astonishing to me how I can present scientific evidence and yet there are people who refuse to consider this. We could be saving lives (THAT'S what the evidence says, very strongly) but there's not a peep from the medical community, which is evidence that the medical profession has indeed been captured by the pharmaceutical industry and is fighting, tooth and nail, against therapy by a vitamin. Who ever heard of such a thing!! Science is built on evidence, not prejudice and groupthink. 

    The basic contention was not that this virus is like a normal flu but that from all the evidence we have, it's striking the elderly and those with underlying conditions the most and leaving healthy people with a mild form, for the most past. Are we going to hear stories about young people on respirators? Yes, but that doesn't mean that all young people are on respirators-- or even any significant portion of them. So the suggestion was that we target our resources on those at highest risk, not that we let them die in the streets or sacrifice them, while thinking about getting the rest of us back to work because otherwise the economic dislocation will be profound, and when the multi-trillion-dollar credit market collapses and the too-big-to-fail businesses collapse, we may be singing a different tune. Liquidity will collapse and many of us will become beggars at government's door if we keep this up. People will run out of money to buy food unless the government gives it to them. Is that what we want? What, a two-trillion dollar US bailout already, and we've barely begun to get hit by this?

    Does this virus kill some medical personnel? Apparently, yes. No one said it would not, but so far I haven't heard anything about ages or underlying conditions (except for one 75-year-old doctor: the susceptible age group.)

    We have to strike a balance, and my point was that if we want to wait this thing out for two-three months, then what happens to our economy? What happens next year when the virus or a mutation of it circulates again, and we all know that despite best efforts there has not yet been a vaccine for that other coronavirus, the common cold? Do we all go into hiding again for two months?

    Are our hospitals going to be overwhelmed, and do we need to flatten the curve? Yes, and that's why some are arguing for a more surgical approach to this that targets the most vulnerable and yet allows the rest of us to pick things back up. It's not a perfect solution, but something to think about. No solution is perfect at this point.

    But, it appears to be too late: panic has captured us. Every number gets blown out of portion. 3,291 people have died in China, and they seem to have turned the corner. That's a lot!! 3,291!! But in a country of 1.4 billion, that's 0.00024% of the population, which means that most people in China will not know anyone who has died from the virus. Think about that. The projected death rate of millions of Americans dying from this seems pure fantasy, backed up by no evidence at all, and we don't need that kind of fear-mongering. 



    ------------------------------
    Don Dalton
    Chester VT
    ------------------------------



  • 58.  RE: Planning for post COVID-19

    Registered Piano Technician
    Posted 03-26-2020 09:09
    Thank you for asking us to look forward David. 


    A little bit of waiting = a whole lot of living. 

    That so, let's make it count.

    Hope the weather is as beautiful there as it is here.

    ------------------------------
    Elizabeth Pearson
    Gaithersburg MD
    240-751-5900
    ------------------------------



  • 59.  RE: Planning for post COVID-19

    Registered Piano Technician
    Posted 03-26-2020 10:05
    Over the past year or so I have greatly restricted my participation in this forum as well as Piano World. The degeneration of this topic is a perfect example of why. We sometimes say things to each other online that we would never say in a "real" conversation. There is also a tendency to let politics and agendas enter in where they do not belong. I have even "taken the bait" a couple of times myself.

    Anyway, to return to the original subject: "Restarting your business after Covid 19".  I decided to pause all reminders to clients for the time being. Why? People are very concerned about the health and safety of themselves, children, extended families, etc. Schools and businesses are closed and many people face an uncertain future not knowing if/when they will be able to return to work. To me, this just doesn't seem like the appropriate the time to send a reminder about servicing the piano.

    This past October I underwent rotator cuff surgery and was out of work until the beginning of March. During that time I paused all reminders. In mid-February I restarted my reminders (using Gazelle) and within a week my schedule was booked through March. Now, the Governor of Massachusetts has ordered all non-essential businesses closed until April 7, so I had to cancel quite a few appointments. At this point we really can't be certain when a normal work schedule will be viable. Based on my recent experience of restarting reminders after a five month pause I am not concerned about pausing them again. Whether or not the work will still be there has more to do with factors beyond my control than with if I do or do not send service reminders.

    ------------------------------
    Gerry Johnston
    Haverhill, MA
    gj@gjpianotuner.com
    www.gjpianotuner.com
    (978) 372-2250
    ------------------------------



  • 60.  RE: Planning for post COVID-19

    Posted 03-26-2020 10:55

    I understand your comments about not participating a ton on the forums.  I find myself getting pulled into things and it's hardly constructive.  Debates never changed anyone's mind.  In a few essential things, we are all on the same page.  We all want our families and clients to be safe and well, and we all want to do our part to keep it so.  And we all would like to get back to work, as soon as it is safe to do so.  

    Until then though, you are right Gerry - I am trying to stay out of arguments and etc.  It's so true that all of us say things online sometimes that we might never say in person.  It's good to stop and reflect before hitting 'send' that's for sure!!  

    I agree with you about the reminders - I have suspended mine for the time being.  I've pushed out current appointments with a promise to get in touch when it's safe to resume business, and am making a list of everyone who is due within April and May...since I know nobody can schedule right now, I figured it might be best to be sensitive to the situation and not send any right now.  All we can do is wait and see, but I do feel that many people will be happy for things to get back to a more 'normal'.  I know I will be!  Until then, I will read lots of books, take lots of walks, play with my dog, and study piano material. 

    Stay safe and well, all! 



    ------------------------------
    Hannah Hall
    Joyful Noise Piano Service
    Liberty NC
    336-609-4029
    joyfulnoisepianoservice@gmail.com
    "Make a joyful noise unto the Lord, all the earth!" - Psalm 100:1
    ------------------------------



  • 61.  RE: Planning for post COVID-19

    Registered Piano Technician
    Posted 03-26-2020 12:52
    I'm finding time to go through the nightmare zone I call my shop.  I pick at it which is the only effective way to conquer such a disaster zone.  I no longer do extensive piano work out there and so the area is in constant flux between storage, rock polishing, odd piano parts and decades of decorations hanging from places high up out of reach.  Yesterday I successfully repaired my table saw.  30 years ago I cobbled the pulley to get me through a job. For $15 I now have a fully functional non-compromised table saw.  It's all good.

    As for a few months from now, I was just enlightened to a HUGE possibility.  If enough people can't pay their interest on their loans, (not common folks like us, I'm thinking major loan holders) some banks are going to crash and burn.  In short, this shelter in place thing is very possibly going to have some major repercussions and back lash that will take years to heal. 

    Hunker down guys.  We're in a bigger mess than ever before!!.  We're in a luxury business.  Live cheap.  Live simple.  It'll be a while before folks feel comfortable enough to spend the $$$ to have their pianos tuned like they were a month ago.

    Me?  I'm technically retired and don't really care.  The economy had been churning along for so long without a care that I figured we were about to crash AGAIN!!  Learning to live with a pandemic may be the new norm for a while.  Good luck everyone. 

    Clean the shop, fix up the yard, wash the car inside and out, chop fahrwood, organize your inventory, wash off your tools, launder some shop rags, clean the filters on the shop vac, fix that power tool you've been limping along, replace broken and burned out light fixtures, add power sockets/sources, paint, teach your neighbor's cat to stand on it's hind legs and dance.

    ------------------------------
    Larry Fisher
    Owner, Chief Grunt, Head Hosehead
    Vancouver WA
    503-310-6965
    Working the gravy zone for the rest of my days.
    ------------------------------



  • 62.  RE: Planning for post COVID-19

    Member
    Posted 03-26-2020 15:41
    Larry... you took the words out of my mouth. I think it would be wise for everyone to take a time out and examine where they are in life, quit bickering about things and stay focused. Things will get better but when - well that is an unknown. We can be prepared for what comes our way or we can cower in the corner. I like to look back in history and see how we responded to major events such as bank crashes, depressions, the dust bowl, World War I, World War II, Korea, Vietnam, The Gulf War, The War on Terror, Hurricanes Katrina, Floyd ,Hugo,The American Revolution, The Civil War, typhus, cholera, the plague, the flu epidemic 1917/1918 . Every challenge that has come our way we have risen to and this is no different. What is different is the world we live in and the technology which gives 24 x 7 to everyone with a cell phone, computer, streaming. We have never been more disconnected from one another. Before this all went down I liked to observe people in the sit down area of the book store. 4 people at a table and all with their face buried in a phone or tablet. We use email rather than have meaningful face to face discussions. Even a phone call is better than a bunch of words that are often sent in haste or come off as negative . My hope after this is that we will realize the value of life, friends,family and making wise choices in all we do.

    If you have ever suffered serious health crises or your friends and family have  you will have come to know the value of every moment. We do not know what the next day will bring or if we will even be here so be grateful you could get out of bed today and be vertical. Those of us who are the "white hair knowledge" should be spending our time staying safe and keeping the torch lit so we can pass it on to the next runner. Perhaps  each of us can write up tips and pointers we have learned and flood the home office/PTG Journal editorial staff with them. Maybe we can create a commemorative issue of the journal with tips and tricks of the trade as well as mini blogs of how we spent our time sheltering in place. Who knows we might end up with a book !!!!.

    There will be a day when pianos will need to be repaired, tuned, regulated, rebuilt but it will not likely be that soon. We most likely will need to change how we do things after this such as cleaning our tools constantly , wearing gloves, leaving tools  in our vans, trucks and cars taking just a tuning kit into a home.

    If you like to read check out the Internet Archive where you can check out all sorts of materials FREE with no time limit. Check out the offerings of the great courses at TheGreatCourses.com where there is no homework, no tests, no grades  only the joy of learning
    Physics, Math, Music, language, Science, History you name it. I have two such courses I am about to dive into . One is Music Theory and the other is Music and Mathematics. I am going to brew some great Black Rifle Coffee and go sit on my side porch and soak it all in- coffee, fresh air and sunshine. Sieze the Day My Friends.

    ------------------------------
    James Kelly
    Owner- Fur Elise Piano Service
    Pawleys Island SC
    843-325-4357
    ------------------------------



  • 63.  RE: Planning for post COVID-19

    Registered Piano Technician
    Posted 03-26-2020 18:19
    Mr. Kelly,
    Your mention of Black Rifle Coffee has triggered me:-)
    Be well and safe.

    ------------------------------
    Karl Roeder
    Pompano Beach FL
    ------------------------------



  • 64.  RE: Planning for post COVID-19

    Registered Piano Technician
    Posted 03-26-2020 17:14
    Hi, Lar

    Did you find the boat anchor in your shop? (oops, it was Beau D'Ahnkher or something like that?)

    ------------------------------
    Susan Kline
    Philomath, Oregon
    ------------------------------



  • 65.  RE: Planning for post COVID-19

    Registered Piano Technician
    Posted 03-26-2020 13:14
    @Elizabeth Pearson, thank you for that post and picture. Way to make lemonade. I'm inspired and also a bit envious of your Milwaukee miter saw. ​I spend some time drooling over those earlier this year but ultimately ended up purchasing a Craftsman model that folds...not because it was a great tool (it's not) but because it folds small enough to fit on a regular-size IKEA bookshelf.


    @Don Dalton​, please excuse my frustrated tone. I'm getting a bit weary of seeing threads hijacked by your posts about Vitamin C and the like. In an online forum, if you find yourself in disagreement with someone, the polite thing to do is to agree to disagree and move on. Doubling down and replying to every comment with ever-longer and more strident posts doesn't convince anybody. It annoys others and damages your own credibility. I fear that if you continue on your current trajectory you will find yourself blocked by the moderators from participating in this forum at all. You will feel it is censorship, but it won't be that at all. It will be because you persistently failed to adhere to the purpose of this forum. Please, take my word for it, it is far more effective to just state your case and move on.

    @Benjamin Sanchez, 1. Read the room. 2. I am very sympathetic to your plight. It's hard to be starting out in a self-employed business without a safety net or financial cushion. I've been there. I started in the last recession in a new state with zero customers, with my wife attending school full-time. It was scary. At the same time, I think you have many blessings that you might be taking a bit for granted. You are young and healthy and educated and you have acquired some valuable and marketable skills through hard work. And on top of that you live in a wealthy country that takes good care of its citizens. They will literally be mailing you a $1200 check to help out. Yes, this is stressful, but we're all in it together. And I can think of a few billion people who would love to trade places with you right now.

    Returning to the subject of this thread, I am confident that when this blows over pianos will still need to be tuned and people will still appreciate music enough to want them tuned. Perhaps even more so after spending so much time at home. I personally would lean against sending out reminder emails right now for the reason that it annoys me to get a constant flow of COVID19-related marketing emails from all the companies I've interacted with in the past. Seriously, I got an email from SmileDirectClub with the subject line "It's official: you're getting a straighter smile from home."  As if I would spend my stimulus check on aligners :-D


    ------------------------------
    Anthony Willey, RPT
    http://willeypianotuning.com
    http://pianometer.com
    ------------------------------



  • 66.  RE: Planning for post COVID-19

    Member
    Posted 03-26-2020 13:58
    Anyone wants to block me or censor me, be my guest. 

    None of this is personal on my part; I'm simply saying what I believe is true and in the spirit of good will.  And yes, I DO answer objections. In detail. 

    But ... some of you are a bit touchy when challenged, I'd say.  

    And no, Anthony, I will not take your word for it that it's better to state my case and move on. I do not just sit back and take what's dished out; you may have noticed that. And I don't like people stating their prejudices as if they're immovable facts that no one can challenge. 






    ------------------------------
    Don Dalton
    Chester VT
    ------------------------------



  • 67.  RE: Planning for post COVID-19

    Posted 03-26-2020 14:18
    Not sure if this was posted previously, but I thought I would share the article below in relation to COVID-19 treatment. I remember Don talking about vitamin C at some point. It looks like the mainstream is finally catching on to what the alternative medicine community has been using successfully for at least 25 years. With an open mind I think that we may be able to prevent more deaths and serious complications. Also, NAC, skullcap, forsythia, zinc, quercitin, honeysuckle flower, olive leaf. This is in no way any medical advice. Check with your open-minded doctors first!              
     
    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8149191/New-York-hospitals-treating-corona-patients-6000-milligrams-VITAMIN-C.html?ito=social-facebook&fbclid=IwAR0U68cLuxXpJAahifiIcV9QqNaXOlNZ7dlUKRGjCKYlY3jmXrN04NMVnWw

    ------------------------------
    Jason Leininger
    Pittsburgh PA
    412-874-6992
    ------------------------------



  • 68.  RE: Planning for post COVID-19

    Registered Piano Technician
    Posted 03-26-2020 14:42
    Don, do you think this is Facebook? Can't block here and only flagged posts have the possibility of being censored.

    ------------------------------
    Larry Messerly, RPT
    Bringing Harmony to Homes
    www.lacrossepianotuning.com
    ljmesserly@gmail.com
    928-899-7292
    ------------------------------



  • 69.  RE: Planning for post COVID-19

    Member
    Posted 03-26-2020 16:17
    Larry, I was responding to Anthony's threat of being blocked by moderators.




    ------------------------------
    Don Dalton
    Chester VT
    ------------------------------



  • 70.  RE: Planning for post COVID-19

    Registered Piano Technician
    Posted 03-26-2020 14:44
    Folks, there is a my.ptg.org community for health related issues: "Health Related Issues of Piano Technicians".
    There are 190 people who are subscribed there. They are likely a more sympathetic audience for some of the suggestions offered here. 
    It makes as much sense posting your "alternate medicine" (or even "AMA approved") viewpoints here (PianoTech), as posting about bridle straps on a "Soundboards & Rescaling" community.

    ------------------------------
    Patrick Draine
    Billerica MA
    978-663-9690
    ------------------------------



  • 71.  RE: Planning for post COVID-19

    Posted 03-26-2020 15:30
    Thank you for this great reminder to stay on topic Patrick. 

    I'd also add that this Pianotech forum is one that has both members and nonmembers so this conversation is a representation of the PTG internally and externally.

    Here is a reminder of all of our online communication rules as well:

    By using the PTG online discussion forums, you are agreeing to abide by the Guidelines for Online Participation outlined below. These rules will be enforced in order to maintain a friendly, positive and welcoming discussion environment.

    Guidelines for Online Participation:

    1. Follow the Code of Conduct:

    The PTG Code of Conduct  includes more specific information about what is considered appropriate when posting on PTG discussion forums. Non Members are our valued guests, but will also be expected to abide by the same standards. All subscribers must agree to uphold the Code of Conduct and these Guidelines for Online Participation in order to participate.

    2. Be Respectful:

    Our online communications should display the same manners and respect that we would expect if we were speaking to each other in person at chapter meetings or events. It is okay to disagree or share different opinions, but it is not okay to use rudeness when responding to others. Disrespectful behavior, insults, threats and other abusive forms of communication will not be tolerated.

    3. Be Helpful:

    PTG's technical forums can be a very valuable source of learning for technicians at every level, but especially for beginners. Please remember that everyone started out as a beginner, and seemingly obvious questions are not so obvious to those with less experience. Please make an effort to make newer technicians feel welcome, and remember that questions from new technicians often spark the most valuable discussions.

    4. Be On Topic:

    Some discussions will occasionally stray from topic, but please make an effort to limit off-topic posts. When a large number of messages are posted that have no relevance to the forum or topic, this makes the discussion less valuable to those who are trying to keep up with the relevant material. Before submitting any post, it's best to ask the question, "Am I adding anything of value to this discussion?"

    5. No Spamming:

    Using the forums for advertising products or services is prohibited. In technical discussions, the mention of products is inevitable, and it may be appropriate for a vendor to respond to a discussion to provide clarifying information, but vendors should use discretion in those communications to avoid using the forum for promotional purposes.

    6. Observe Antitrust Policies:

    All members should be familiar with PTG's Antitrust Guidelines and abide by them when posting information.

    7. Reporting a Violation:

    Use of the "Mark as Inappropriate" button is taken seriously, and the complaint will be investigated. While it is your right, it is also your responsibility to use the system appropriately. If a posted message violates the Guidelines for Online Participation, users can notify the IT department by clicking the "Mark as Inappropriate" button. The message will be reviewed in context, and if the rules appear to be intentionally violated by the author, that individual will be given a warning. Continued offenses will result in a suspension of access to the forums.



    ------------------------------
    PTG Administration
    Kansas City KS
    ------------------------------