Hi Jovanni,
First, welcome to the PTG! And congratulations on making the choice to start your journey. Several thoughts on your post that I feel are relevant:
I don't believe the piano industry is shrinking at nearly the rate that the raw numbers suggest. For one thing, that's been a resurgence in interest of playing the piano since the COVID lockdowns of 2020. Lots of people (re)started playing, which has lead to more pianos, which has lead to more work for us. Yes, there aren't as many pianos being sold as there were 40 years ago, but that's due in part to keyboards having replaced spinets as the entry-level instruments. (Most techs agree that this is a step up in many cases.) It's not uncommon to see a family upgrade to a good quality acoustic piano after a year or two of taking lessons on a keyboard.
Also, just because new pianos aren't selling at the same rate as they have in the past doesn't necessarily affect your ability to find work (unless you sell pianos). Like you pointed out, there are millions of pianos already built, and every single one of them needs to be serviced at some point. According to some research I did a few years ago, most self-employed full-time technicians make between $90,000 and $130,000, which is more than plenty to live off of in most places. I know of a few technicians who make more than $200,000, and I've heard of two who have made about $500,000 a year. It is possible.
You are correct about the aging demographics of the piano industry. The average age within the guild is 65 if I remember correctly, and we desperately need young blood!
If you treat it like a business (more on that in a moment), piano work can be extremely stable, even more so than a "normal" job. Think about it this way. With a "normal" job, you have one boss that you need to keep happy all the time. If he has a bad day, you might be looking for a new job. With piano work, you have thousands of bosses over the years. If one of them isn't happy, big deal. Just move on to the next client, who will probably be happy. This kind of diversity leads to greater stability over time.
The main area where people get into trouble is when they don't learn how to run a business. You don't need to get an MBA, but you do need to have some training. Running a business is different from tuning pianos, and you need to learn how to do both. There's more to it than just hanging out a shingle and hoping people will call you.
There are quite a few excellent books out there on building a business (including my own), and I'd be happy to give you some referrals if you contact me privately. Some are about business in general, and some are specific to the piano service industry. Get some and start reading today! No one is a business expert when they start, but there's not an excuse of why you can't be one in a few years. There's an old saying that your business bottlenecks with you, and that's true. Your business can only grow as much as you do.
Additionally, I would recommend that you start to hang out with successful technicians. Pick their brains about the state of the industry and how they've been successfully. Ask them how they talk to clients and place bids on work. Find out what's profitable and what to stay away from. Don't take business advice from people who aren't successful or have a poor outlook on things - you'll pick up some negative habits that will greatly hinder your ability to build a successful business. The great thing about PTG is that we have some of the best people in the world here, including some of the most successful piano technicians on the planet - and most of them are willing to help anyone who asks.
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Benjamin Sanchez, RPT
(256) 947-9999
www.professional-piano-services.comwww.FromZeroToSixFiguresBook.comwww.PianoCraftTechnicalSchool.com------------------------------