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Planning for post COVID-19

  • 1.  Planning for post COVID-19

    Registered Piano Technician
    Posted 14 days ago

    There are a growing number of us in lockdown states and cancelling all appointments until things open up again. In spite of the President's fantasy that this will happen by Easter I think that is unlikely but that's still several weeks away and I'm not interested in a debate on policy right now. I happen to think lockdown is necessary to insure that our health care system is not overwhelmed and people don't lose their lives unnecessarily.

    One question for us is how do we best prepare for the time when the country does open again. At present it's hard to schedule appointments as we don't know if we will be able to keep them and going back and forth rescheduling is difficult not to mention we don't know what the status of those customers will be.

    What I am doing is continuing to use my email reminder system to alert folks that their pianos are due for service. In my reminder email text I have written that at this time I am not booking any appointments but I am creating a list for those who want me to contact them as soon as we get word that things are opening up again. 

    Since I use an email system for reminders (which I recommend as it allows you to send global updates and announcements not to mention saves in time and postage), I have simply created a subfolder in my outlook inbox called "post-covid" and the responses I get from those who want me to contact them can be kept in chronological order so I can respond first come first serve. I expect this folder to have quite a few responses by the time this is done and this is an easy way to keep track. I can then go to these emails and simply respond to each one.  

    'My database system uses a simple excel spreadsheet with a column, among others, for contact date (when they are due for a reminder), and a column for their email address so that I can just copy and paste those email addresses into the Bcc area of the email. Excel allows you to custom sort by any column so you can easily sort by the contact date and see all those who are due in a given month. 

    I would add to Hannah's very good list of things to do while we are locked down to learn to use excel. It is a very useful program for database use, accounting, and a host of piano applications including calculations for touchweight specs and  soundboard design calculations.  It's not difficult to learn.

    For those who are desperate for work there are a number of industries that are hiring including grocery store chains for restocking, big box stores like Walmart and Costco, CVS pharmacies, delivery companies, Amazon, etc.  I'll add a link to an article outlining those companies that I saw earlier today. 

    Here are 700,000 open jobs that need to be filled immediately

    Cbsnews remove preview
    Here are 700,000 open jobs that need to be filled immediately
    Millions of Americans are already losing their jobs as the coronavirus spreads across the U.S. and wreaks havoc on the economy. But the pandemic is also driving a surge in hiring at businesses seeing an upsurge in demand for their products and services because of the outbreak.
    View this on Cbsnews >


    These are difficult times for everyone but I'm confident we will come out of this if we remain vigilant and responsible in our actions. Take care of your families and neighbors and let's let this bring out the better angels of our nature.

    Take care and be well.



    ------------------------------
    David Love RPT
    www.davidlovepianos.com
    davidlovepianos@comcast.net
    415 407 8320
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  • 2.  RE: Planning for post COVID-19

    Registered Piano Technician
    Posted 14 days ago
    I hear ya. I use Gazelle and am keeping the default reminders going. I also think it'll take "a while" after things resume for people to start actually requesting piano service. So...I had planned to have a shoulder surgery this summer when it's always super slow. But now I've moved it up to April 9, with the hopes that I'll be recovered enough to resume work once work picks up (if it does). And also assuming they can actually do the surgery with all that's going on. I kinda doubt it will happen that way, but that's what I'm planning.

    I have started something else from home. We shall see how it works out. For now, using the emergency fund. If it runs out, I'll do whatever I need to.

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    John Formsma, RPT
    New Albany MS
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  • 3.  RE: Planning for post COVID-19

    Posted 14 days ago
    Here in the UK we'll be surprised if we're through in two or even three months. 

    People are planting up window boxes for vegetables, tomatoes and the like. And demand for chickens has soared. 

    With the delay in taking it seriously it will have spread very much more and it was a case of a stitch in time saves nine. Some countries such as Taiwan have coped very well although some would say otherwise but I believe South Korea is another example, by testing and quarantining people infected, early on, it's been possible to snuff out exponential growth. Now that exponential growth is inevitable in so many places, just don't think that any sort of normality will be reached any time soon.

    We're coming into the growing season. If you've got a garden or some land, plant it whilst you can and crops will grow. 

    Success really depends on as few people going out for any reason and as rarely as possible. So best not to worry about piano tuning work and focus on what will give you food. For those who are younger, don't have health conditions, and don't smoke, you'll be in demand in logistics and deliveries.

    This might seem negative but it's a realism but the efforts to cope with the virus will require major lifeshifts. https://www.itv.com/news/2020-03-24/government-launches-campaign-recruit-250000-nhs-volunteers-matt-hancock/

    In the emergency in which we find ourselves piano tuning is a luxury and a dead horse. The dead horse won't be revived by flogging it. I read this evening that the virus is coming to NY not as the juggernaut of a goods train but with the speed of a bullet train. It's time to buckle down to a new life whilst you're still able to prepare in any way. Provision. Be ready to provide. Success will not depend on any greed of the individual looking after himself but the ability of individuals to provide for others and others to provide for them. 

    Best wishes

    David P

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    David Pinnegar, B.Sc., A.R.C.S.
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    +44 1342 850594





  • 4.  RE: Planning for post COVID-19

    Registered Piano Technician
    Posted 13 days ago
    I agree it will likely be months and the best thing people can do is stay healthy and be vigilant about distancing and safe practices. The more seriously we take the sooner we'll get past it.

    ------------------------------
    David Love RPT
    www.davidlovepianos.com
    davidlovepianos@comcast.net
    415 407 8320
    ------------------------------



  • 5.  RE: Planning for post COVID-19

    Member
    Posted 13 days ago
    Article by Friedman published in the NY Times is informative and makes sense. No one under nine years has died from this and healthy individuals under 60 generally are asymptomatic or else have a mild form. Healthy teenagers are largely immune to this or, again, get a mild form. Those are the facts. Overwhelmingly, those who are seriously affected are elderly and/or have underlying conditions. The median age of death from this in Italy, for example, is 79.5 years, and one virologist has speculated that since the disease likely had been widespread in Italy, many of those dying there are dying with the disease, not from it.

    Months of this? That would be an all-around disaster, and, as Friedman explains, there's another strategy that makes sense.

    https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/22/opinion/coronavirus-economy.html

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    Don Dalton
    Chester VT
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  • 6.  RE: Planning for post COVID-19

    Registered Piano Technician
    Posted 13 days ago
    In reading the comments section:  this is a sound plan IF readily available testing is in play.  Testing is not readily available to reliably enact herd immunity.  Yes, you have to have a NYTimes subscription to read the comments (which I have), but the reporter has welcomed comments.  His intent is to start a conversation and the comments show he is being successful.

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    Tim Coates
    Sioux Falls SD
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  • 7.  RE: Planning for post COVID-19

    Member
    Posted 13 days ago
    As I understand, COVID-19 articles are temporarily free at the NY Times. I don't have a subscription.

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    Don Dalton
    Chester VT
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  • 8.  RE: Planning for post COVID-19

    Registered Piano Technician
    Posted 13 days ago
    Hi Don,

    The link you provided (at least for me) was not free.  I had to log in to get past part of the first paragraph.

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    Tim Coates
    Sioux Falls SD
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  • 9.  RE: Planning for post COVID-19

    Member
    Posted 13 days ago
    Here's another link to the Friedman essay that should work. If not, just search for the title-- "Leadership test during covid: a plan to get America back to work"--  and you're sure to find something,

    https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/international/business/leadership-test-during-covid-a-plan-to-get-america-back-to-work/articleshow/74800405.cms

    ------------------------------
    Don Dalton
    Chester VT
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  • 10.  RE: Planning for post COVID-19

    Member
    Posted 13 days ago

    Don,
    There are two strains on the virus and one is significantly worse than the other for everyone who contracts that strain.  Herd immunity is ethically problematic because it suggests (in the 'fine print') that only the healthy deserve to survive this.  There are human beings who, through no fault of their own, would not be able to survive this virus, and saying everyone should just get sick and either get over it or die is just...messed up.  Sorry to disagree.  

    Human lives are more important than the economy.  I say this even as I know I will likely struggle to have a lot of work for the next year as people recover from this financially.  I don't know about you, but I'd rather be ALIVE and BROKE, than dead and the economy is okay. And I think most people feel that way.  

    If we reopen everything by Easter it will be a catastrophe, as our European friends try to warn us, and we may as well have never closed everything.  Unfortunately this will take time.  My guess is 2-3 months.  



    ------------------------------
    Hannah Hall
    Joyful Noise Piano Service
    Liberty NC
    336-609-4029
    joyfulnoisepianoservice@gmail.com
    "Make a joyful noise unto the Lord, all the earth!" - Psalm 100:1
    ------------------------------



  • 11.  RE: Planning for post COVID-19

    Registered Piano Technician
    Posted 13 days ago
    Hi Hannah,

    I'm curious if you read the article?  Just a question.

    I didn't come away from the article feeling the author was taking one stance or the other.  In fact I thought the main thrust was to present a couple of scenarios.  He invited discussion through the comments section and that's where the testing issue is being brought up.


    ------------------------------
    Tim Coates
    Sioux Falls SD
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  • 12.  RE: Planning for post COVID-19

    Posted 13 days ago
    Hannah - I'm entirely with you.

    The old saying is that a stitch in time saves nine, and unfortunately the governments are having to run round making nine, and more, having not taken the stitch in time.

    In the UK I'm not entirely sure that the nine applied have been strong enough but we'll see. In Japan there is a strangely relaxed approach as reported in https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/phoney-war-how-japan-is-facing-down-coronavirus-gdsglhhp5 but today there appears to be a realisation that a stricter policy is required. https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/spains-death-toll-overtakes-china-xf9096n8b 
    JAPAN Tokyo, the world's biggest city, will be locked down after a surge in coronavirus infections threatened a new explosion of the epidemic in a country that had seemed ...  

    As soon as facilities are overwhelmed the death rate can exceed 10-14% so in an uncontrolled population remaining uncontrolled the numbers could be very significant. No president and perhaps no economy will survive that. If the US has sense at its helm the realisation of the effects of being open for business by easter will hit and a change of policy will be inevitable.

    Best wishes

    David P
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    David Pinnegar, B.Sc., A.R.C.S.
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    +44 1342 850594





  • 13.  RE: Planning for post COVID-19

    Member
    Posted 13 days ago
    "As soon as facilities are overwhelmed the death rate can exceed 10-14% so in an uncontrolled population remaining uncontrolled the numbers could be very significant. "

    That's speculation that assumes that the virus will start killing young, healthy people. We have the evidence in front of us: the elderly are at risk, not the vast majority of the working age population. That is what all the evidence to date says-- loudly, clearly, and unequivocally-- and the evidence also says that no one under nine years old has died from this.

    Get test kits out for the elderly. Tell healthy younger Americans to stop clogging up the system asking for tests, because they're going to be OK, until we have enough kits for anyone who wants to be tested. Focus attention on the highest-risk group, the elderly, and let the rest of us get back to work before we completely and unnecessarily wreck the economy for years to come.









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    Don Dalton
    Chester VT
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  • 14.  RE: Planning for post COVID-19

    Member
    Posted 13 days ago

    So true - and there are rising reports of younger and younger deaths.  I heard about a four month old today who's in isolation with a carer at a hospital, and very sick, and it broke my heart. 💔

    I think people ignoring these things will result in more and more deaths.  It's so heartbreaking.  I have several family members who are high risk, so my perspective is perhaps a bit more...wary, than some.  But I have always been a cautious person, and people at the end of the day will always matter most to me.  

    Agree with you David - I hope the governments and majority will continue to take this seriously.  I think, if they do, in the long run it will shorten the duration of all of this.  



    ------------------------------
    Hannah Hall
    Joyful Noise Piano Service
    Liberty NC
    336-609-4029
    joyfulnoisepianoservice@gmail.com
    "Make a joyful noise unto the Lord, all the earth!" - Psalm 100:1
    ------------------------------



  • 15.  RE: Planning for post COVID-19

    Member
    Posted 13 days ago
    There's zero evidence that there are two strains of the virus and that one is killing people. Rather, the evidence is plain as day that the virus, whatever mutations it has and whatever strains it has, is overwhelmingly killing older people and not younger people. Young people are not dying from this unless it's the rare case or unless these younger people have underlying conditions. People under 60 are not dying from this in any great numbers.

    103 people die each day in the US because of car accidents. Are we shutting down the economy for that? After all, better to be alive than drive, right? Are we even slowing down 20 mph? No.

    "This is not to dismiss the danger of COVID-19 or deny the respect it warrants. But if the reason for that respect is the danger posed to life, limb, and loved ones- we are distorting it with regard to coronavirus, while overlooking many greater threats that hide in plain sight. This is an inevitable consequence of communal fixation at an all but unprecedented scale.

    "There is more. Coronavirus severity and mortality are, again based on the best available data we have thus far, massively concentrated among the already chronically ill, and especially among the elderly, as I've noted before. Where the denominator data are most reliable, roughly 99% of cases are reported as mild, posing no threat to life and not requiring hospitalization. The risk of death is highly concentrated among those over age 70 and especially 80, meaning the likelihood of exposure and recovery in the rest of us is considerably better than 99%, and more like 99.9%. Unlike the flu or measles, this infection has shown no tendency at all to cause death in children."  --David L. Katz, MD, MPH, FACPM, FACP, FACLM
    https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/coronavirus-mortality-reality-check-david/?trk=portfolio_article-card_title

    How many of those who supposedly died from COVID-19 would have been in line anyhow if this had been the flu that hit them? Not trying to be callous but maybe we're losing sight of the forest for the trees. There are some 7.8 billion people on earth, and the 400,000 COVID-19 cases, the vast, vast majority of which are mild, are mostly just noise that we've blown all out of proportion.

    Signed,
    Your Friendly Neighborhood Contrarian





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    Don Dalton
    Chester VT
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  • 16.  RE: Planning for post COVID-19

    Posted 13 days ago
    Don - it's simply not true that the virus only attacks the old

    A 21 year old young female has died with no underlying health conditions and a 47 year old British ambassador likewise has died.

    This is not flu.

    It will hit anyone indiscriminately.

    Best wishes

    David P

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    David Pinnegar, B.Sc., A.R.C.S.
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    +44 1342 850594





  • 17.  RE: Planning for post COVID-19

    Member
    Posted 13 days ago
    "It will hit anyone indiscriminately." And I agree, but ...

    I didn't say it attacks only the old. I said the fatalities are overwhelmingly elderly, and those who are young and healthy generally have a mild form of the disease or are asymptomatic. This doesn't mean there are no deaths among young, healthy people, but these are not typical. This is what we know. We should act accordingly.

    Breaking news: Nic Lewis has examined the UK estimates for deaths from COVID-19 and finds they are hugely overestimated. I haven't read this yet. https://www.nicholaslewis.org/covid-19-updated-data-implies-that-uk-modelling-hugely-overestimates-the-expected-death-rates-from-infection/



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    The Contrarian
    Chester VT
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  • 18.  RE: Planning for post COVID-19

    Posted 13 days ago
    The experience in France is that 50% of hospitalised cases is under the age of 60.

    It's really important to beware all news sources that discount the dangers. It's also important to be wary of anyone who's banking on some sort of immunisation. 

    Don't just rely on life as normal. 

    It might . . . but we'll experience a lot before we get there, by which time we'll forget what the old normal was.

    Best wishes

    David P


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    David Pinnegar, B.Sc., A.R.C.S.
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    +44 1342 850594





  • 19.  RE: Planning for post COVID-19

    Member
    Posted 13 days ago
    50% of those in ICU in France under 60, but we're not told how old they are (59? 58?) or if these are part of the group that has underlying conditions that makes them highly susceptible to the virus.

    I repeat, the best evidence we have, from South Korea, China, Italy, etc., and probably also from France if we dig into it, is that the vast majority of patients who succumb to this disease are elderly and/or have underlying conditions. We should be acting accordingly. You can find exceptions to the rule but that doesn't negate what we know.








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    Don Dalton
    Chester VT
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  • 20.  RE: Planning for post COVID-19

    Posted 13 days ago
    It probably depends on many things but 

    Use Google translate.

    Please don't be complacent.

    Stay safe.

    Best wishes 

    David P
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    David Pinnegar, B.Sc., A.R.C.S.
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    +44 1342 850594





  • 21.  RE: Planning for post COVID-19

    Registered Piano Technician
    Posted 13 days ago
    Even though I personally agree with what Don Dalton has written, I would like to make a friendly request to keep the politics of this off the list. Not only does this divert from the OP, we might end up up arguing over stuff that is not at all piano related.

    No, I'm going to mark any response as "Inappropriate." We're adults here. :)

    ------------------------------
    John Formsma, RPT
    New Albany MS
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  • 22.  RE: Planning for post COVID-19

    Member
    Posted 12 days ago
    Another important point to remember when thinking that covid-19 only threatens the elderly: when the hospital capacity is overwhelmed with covid-19 patients, which it will be, then all health care will be affected. A young person falls from his bicycle and breaks his leg.  Sorry, he will just have to sit there with a broken leg for a few days until something opens up, because all the doctors are busy, or home sick themselves.  There are all sorts of medical emergencies that will just not be treated if we do not flatten the curve.

    ------------------------------
    Robert Scott
    Real-Time Specialties (TuneLab)
    fixthatpiano@yahoo.com
    Hopkins MN
    ------------------------------



  • 23.  RE: Planning for post COVID-19

    Registered Piano Technician
    Posted 13 days ago
    I agree with Don. This thing is seriously blown out of proportions. Every day in the USA 2,335 people die of a heart attack according to the CDC. Nearly 10k have a heart attack, but 2,335 people die of one. Every. Single. Day. But do we shut down the economy for that?

    What about the people who die in strokes? Cancer? Other health issues? Smoking? Alcohol? Drug overdoses? Every day tens if not hundreds of thousands of people die. It's part of life. We don't shut down everything for any other reason. What makes COVID-19 different?

    Maybe it's the fact -- fact -- that COVID-19 has the highest survival rate of all of them. 97% survival rate among the worst case scenario, 99.975% or better among the best case scenario. So yeah, let's all freak out and close everything up. We have really good reason to do so.

    ------------------------------
    Benjamin Sanchez, RPT
    Piano Technician / Artisan
    (805) 315-8050
    www.professional-piano-services.com
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  • 24.  RE: Planning for post COVID-19

    Registered Piano Technician
    Posted 11 days ago

    Benjamin – you are looking at broad statistics relating to how many people die from certain ailments and conditions that are ongoing and well-known.   This is appropriate for thinking about what you should worry about in your own life during normal times and how to influence policy makers when it comes to long-term efforts to address things like diabetes, heart disease, seasonal flu and so on. 

     

    Yes it's true that the large majority of us will be fine.  It's likely that fewer than 1 in 10,000 people in the U.S will die from the coronavirus, so the risk to any particular individual is low.  That isn't the biggest issue here, although it's a problem of course.  Tens of thousands of people dying before their time is something to be concerned about.  The biggest problem is that there will be a large and sudden increase in people needing critical care.  This will be a huge strain on hospitals.  It already is overwhelming certain hospitals in NY City, and it will get far worse in the coming weeks in the City and in other parts of that state with large numbers of cases.  Aside from patients dying, medical personnel in Italy and Spain are getting sick and dying at a far higher rate than in normal times.  This is starting to happen in NY too.  Because of the shortage of PPE, their risk will increase even more, or it might lead to doctors and nurses not being able to do their jobs. 

     

    I suggest that you look up reports on what is happening in Spain and Italy, and in hospitals.  The New York Times is doing excellent reporting on this, and their articles on the epidemic are free to click on for non-subscribers.  Better yet, if you happen to know anyone who works in the medical field, ask them what they think is the right thing to do now.  I know an emergency room doctor, and she recently pleaded with people on Facebook to follow our governor's order to minimize social contact as much as possible.  I have to assume she knows what she's talking about and that she's not being unreasonable and alarmist.  I'm in Washington state. 






  • 25.  RE: Planning for post COVID-19

    Registered Piano Technician
    Posted 12 days ago
    Months of isolated living and no income are only a disaster in an economy where people have no foresight and lack true grit. My hope is this is a wake up call to an irresponsible culture. It's a harsh one though, and people of all age ranges are dying.

    I am staying at home building stone walls, replacing my deck and doing woodworking. My neighbors watch from their decks and it gives them hope.

    Perhaps it's time to meditate on the fact that a few weeks of missed work is leading to the collapse of a national economy - whereas in places like Germany  the entire country goes on holiday for weeks at a time.

    What are we we doing wrong?

    A rush back to work is pure foolishness in my opinion. What is the point?
    We can say that "well only the older people are really succumbing to this." In Italy it came to the point where people over 60 were being denied care. We're going to sit around and watch our parents be left to die because everyone wants to go back to work?

    No thanks.

    David Love hits the nail on the head. We can either hold tight for a little bit longer, or drag this out because we have misplaced priorities.

    Whether it's little Suzy Jones or the Commandant of the Marine Corps, my clients are far too important to me to risk their health over a piano.



    ------------------------------
    Elizabeth Pearson
    Gaithersburg MD
    240-751-5900
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  • 26.  RE: Planning for post COVID-19

    Member
    Posted 12 days ago
    Wow, a cordless chop saw!   How long does the battery last?

    Here's one of my projects, I've been waiting to get to...this pic taken on Bainbridge Island in Washington...gonna make one a these or a version of it...also getting an early start on infrastructure in my garden, using found materials, of coarse.



    ------------------------------
    Jim Ialeggio
    grandpianosolutions.com
    Shirley, MA
    978 425-9026
    ------------------------------



  • 27.  RE: Planning for post COVID-19

    Registered Piano Technician
    Posted 12 days ago
    That's just beautiful Jim.

    I am finding all of the Milwaukee cordless tools absolutely wonderful. Everything from the cordless mitre saw to the chainsaw (you read that right). I got the table saw but haven't tried it yet. The hand tools (circ saw, impact & screw drivers, palm sanders, *cordless router*, sawzall, oscillating tool) are all excellent. And the batteries at the end of the day for me are typically only down one bar (25%).

    Highly recommended, and I bought most everything on sale about 6 months ago and have been adding as needed. They do happen, I see some of the stuff marked way down on the Home Depot website.

    Stay healthy my friend

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    Elizabeth Pearson
    Gaithersburg MD
    240-751-5900
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  • 28.  RE: Planning for post COVID-19

    Registered Piano Technician
    Posted 12 days ago
    Ms, Pearson,
    You are a genuinely impressive person. Is the sewing machine cordless as well?  I will not be terribly surprised if you soon post that you used it to make an awning for the new deck out of old shop towels you've repurposed. Keep inspiring us.

    Mr. Ialeggio
    "using found materials of coarse"
    Come now, surely a man of your woodworking experience will have some sandpaper lying around :-)

    ------------------------------
    Karl Roeder
    Pompano Beach FL
    ------------------------------



  • 29.  RE: Planning for post COVID-19

    Member
    Posted 12 days ago
    no,no,no...for my perennial garden, I've been edging it with 3"-4" sapling cutoffs from the woods...but I just found a previously mowed, weed ash that sent up 7 or eight perfect sprouts. I get the 3-4 diameter lengths, my wife gets the top portions for bean poles...no sandpaper needed <G>.  In the cordless department, I snarfed my son's cordless sawzall, for my collecting forays...a fine tool, but quite the battery hog...that's why I wanted to know how long Elizabeth's battery on her chop saw lasted.

    ------------------------------
    Jim Ialeggio
    grandpianosolutions.com
    Shirley, MA
    978 425-9026
    ------------------------------